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Fed meeting·closes in 6mo

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their March 2027 meeting?

YES means Hike 25bps

24h volume
0
5,333 lifetime
Open interest
4,374
Spread
6¢
4,993 × 20 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
27%

A YES contract costs 31¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
73%

costs 75¢

YES bid / ask
25¢ / 31¢
NO bid / ask
69¢ / 75¢
Recent buying96% YES · 4% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask69448¢
  • ask15847¢
  • ask5046¢
  • ask11841¢
  • ask25538¢
  • ask4737¢
  • ask1536¢
  • ask2031¢
spread6¢mid 28¢
  • bid4,99325¢
  • bid30019¢
  • bid2,94117¢
  • bid50514¢
  • bid1969¢
  • bid9858¢
  • bid1366¢
  • bid2,2345¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on March 17, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 6, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Mar 17, 2027 · 5:59 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Mar 17, 2027 · 6:05 PM UTC
ticker
KXFEDDECISION-27MAR-H25
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 109¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 96% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago27¢29bought no
2d ago28¢15bought no
2d ago25¢2.62bought no
2d ago25¢1.31bought no
2d ago25¢1.08bought no
3d ago26¢144bought yes
3d ago26¢278bought yes
3d ago26¢8bought yes
3d ago25¢2bought no
3d ago21¢2bought no
3d ago21¢6bought no
3d ago20¢92bought yes
3d ago20¢63bought yes
3d ago21¢450bought yes
3d ago21¢1,500bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.