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Fed ended·closes in 28mo

Will Trump end the Federal Reserve before Jan 20, 2029?

YES means Before Jan 20, 2029

24h volume
0
133.2k lifetime
Open interest
34.7k
+648 over 7d
Spread
4¢
72 × 347 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
4%

A YES contract costs 8¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
96%

costs 96¢

YES bid / ask
4¢ / 8¢
NO bid / ask
92¢ / 96¢
Recent buying59% YES · 41% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask118¢
  • ask30015¢
  • ask40012¢
  • ask8859¢
  • ask2949¢
  • ask289¢
  • ask1709¢
  • ask3478¢
spread4¢mid 6¢
  • bid724¢
  • bid1014¢
  • bid974¢
  • bid5003¢
  • bid2513¢
  • bid1,7003¢
  • bid2223¢
  • bid9572¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a bill has become law which has abolished or dissolved the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and its constituent reserve banks before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

The bill need not take effect before January 20, 2029 to be included in the Payout Criterion.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 21, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXFEDEND-29-JAN20
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will Trump end the Federal Reserve?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 59% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago4¢23bought no
3d ago4¢125bought no
3d ago4¢152bought no
3d ago7¢0.87bought yes
3d ago7¢30bought yes
3d ago4¢3bought no
3d ago4¢22bought no
3d ago4¢4.67bought no
4d ago7¢122bought yes
4d ago7¢244bought yes
4d ago7¢3bought yes
4d ago9¢206bought yes
4d ago9¢1bought yes
4d ago9¢1bought yes
4d ago7¢22bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.