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Fed ended·closes in 28mo

Will Trump end the Federal Reserve before Jan 20, 2029?

YES means Before Jan 20, 2029

24h volume
52
133.3k lifetime
Open interest
34.7k
+1,098 over 90d
Spread
4¢
20 × 347 at the touch
24h range
4¢ – 12¢
Chance of YES
4%

A YES contract costs 8¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
96%

costs 96¢

YES bid / ask
4¢ / 8¢
NO bid / ask
92¢ / 96¢
24h low 4¢24h high 12¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢volJun 24Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask118¢
  • ask30015¢
  • ask40012¢
  • ask8859¢
  • ask2949¢
  • ask289¢
  • ask1709¢
  • ask3478¢
spread4¢mid 6¢
  • bid204¢
  • bid1014¢
  • bid974¢
  • bid5003¢
  • bid2513¢
  • bid1,7003¢
  • bid2223¢
  • bid9572¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a bill has become law which has abolished or dissolved the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and its constituent reserve banks before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

The bill need not take effect before January 20, 2029 to be included in the Payout Criterion.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 21, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXFEDEND-29-JAN20
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.