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Fed funds rate at year end·closes in 16mo

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 5.50%?

YES means Above 5.50%

24h volume
0
96 lifetime
Open interest
73
Spread
10¢
5 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
24 recent trades
Chance of YES
7%

A YES contract costs 16¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
93%

costs 94¢

YES bid / ask
6¢ / 16¢
NO bid / ask
84¢ / 94¢
Recent buying15% YES · 85% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10.5k42¢
  • ask10041¢
  • ask10040¢
  • ask5139¢
  • ask133¢
  • ask224¢
  • ask55017¢
  • ask516¢
spread10¢mid 11¢
  • bid56¢
  • bid2903¢
  • bid7652¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 5.50%, then the market resolves to Yes.

If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than a target range, that target rate will be used.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 29 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2028 · 6:30 AM UTC
floor
5.5
ticker
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-28JAN01-T5.50
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 24 trades, 15% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago7¢1.07bought no
18d ago10¢5bought no
1mo ago14¢10bought no
1mo ago14¢21bought no
1mo ago13¢2bought no
1mo ago13¢5bought no
1mo ago11¢1bought no
1mo ago13¢2bought no
1mo ago12¢18bought no
1mo ago13¢5bought no
1mo ago13¢5bought no
2mo ago16¢2bought yes
2mo ago16¢2bought no
2mo ago11¢5bought yes
2mo ago11¢1bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.