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Fed funds rate at year end·closes in 28mo

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2028 be above 5.25%?

YES means Above 5.25%

24h volume
0
356 lifetime
Open interest
197
Spread
26¢
200 × 258 at the touch
24h range
–
31 recent trades
Chance of YES
28%

A YES contract costs 31¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
72%

costs 95¢

YES bid / ask
5¢ / 31¢
NO bid / ask
69¢ / 95¢
Recent buying39% YES · 61% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2,51876¢
  • ask10.2k69¢
  • ask20064¢
  • ask3,28359¢
  • ask8,45258¢
  • ask5557¢
  • ask132¢
  • ask25831¢
spread26¢mid 18¢
  • bid2005¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2028, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 5.25%, then the market resolves to Yes.

If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than a target range, that target rate will be used.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 29 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2029 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2029 · 6:30 AM UTC
floor
5.25
ticker
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-29JAN01-T5.25
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 31 trades, 39% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
29d ago28¢31bought no
1mo ago24¢10bought no
1mo ago24¢21bought no
1mo ago23¢35bought no
1mo ago24¢90bought yes
1mo ago25¢30bought no
1mo ago25¢25bought no
1mo ago25¢25bought no
1mo ago25¢10bought no
2mo ago30¢2bought yes
2mo ago31¢2bought no
2mo ago31¢12bought no
2mo ago33¢2bought no
2mo ago33¢1bought no
2mo ago32¢3bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.