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Next Fed rate hike·closes in 3mo

Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026?

YES means Before 2027

24h volume
554
15.6k lifetime
Open interest
12.2k
Spread
1¢
2,322 × 236 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
85%

A YES contract costs 86¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
15%

costs 15¢

YES bid / ask
85¢ / 86¢
NO bid / ask
14¢ / 15¢
Recent buying62% YES · 38% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask38795¢
  • ask33394¢
  • ask28593¢
  • ask1,00090¢
  • ask1,64989¢
  • ask9.1488¢
  • ask1,13487¢
  • ask23686¢
spread1¢mid 86¢
  • bid2,32285¢
  • bid2,00484¢
  • bid50083¢
  • bid1,50982¢
  • bid1,20081¢
  • bid3,69680¢
  • bid1,38579¢
  • bid2,00078¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Federal Reserve announces an increase in the target range or target level for the federal funds rate after market Issuance and on or before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 16 · 8:30 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXFEDHIKE-2-26DEC31
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 62% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2h ago85¢250bought no
2h ago86¢19bought no
2h ago86¢10bought no
2h ago86¢50bought yes
2h ago86¢5.44bought yes
2h ago87¢116bought yes
4h ago85¢15bought no
22h ago86¢89bought yes
1d ago85¢294bought no
1d ago86¢122bought yes
1d ago86¢122bought yes
1d ago86¢91bought yes
1d ago86¢5bought yes
1d ago86¢300bought yes
1d ago86¢100bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.