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Next Fed rate hike·closes in 16mo

Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2027?

YES means Before 2028

24h volume
167
1,749 lifetime
Open interest
1,572
+1,562 over 7d
Spread
1¢
2,500 × 1,000 at the touch
24h range
84¢ – 94¢
8 recent trades
Chance of YES
94%+2

A YES contract costs 94¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
6%

costs 7¢

YES bid / ask
93¢ / 94¢
NO bid / ask
6¢ / 7¢
24h low 84¢24h high 94¢
Recent buying99% YES · 1% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
80¢85¢90¢95¢100¢volSep 16Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask23299¢
  • ask23898¢
  • ask1,00094¢
spread1¢mid 94¢
  • bid2,50093¢
  • bid10092¢
  • bid19591¢
  • bid1,00190¢
  • bid2,50089¢
  • bid2,50088¢
  • bid50085¢
  • bid48757¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Federal Reserve announces an increase in the target range or target level for the federal funds rate after market Issuance and on or before Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 16 · 8:30 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXFEDHIKE-2-27DEC31
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 8 trades, 99% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
22h ago94¢167bought yes
2d ago92¢11bought yes
3d ago91¢383bought yes
3d ago91¢1bought yes
4d ago91¢1,000bought yes
4d ago91¢167bought yes
4d ago92¢10bought yes
4d ago84¢10bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.