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Nuclear fusion·closes in 160mo

When will nuclear fusion be achieved?

YES means Before 2040

24h volume
232
12.0k lifetime
Open interest
2,533
+0 over 24h
Spread
2¢
500 × 68 at the touch
24h range
53¢ – 53¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
53%+2

A YES contract costs 53¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
48%

costs 50¢

YES bid / ask
51¢ / 53¢
NO bid / ask
48¢ / 50¢
24h low 53¢24h high 53¢
Recent buying46% YES · 54% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
45¢50¢55¢volNov 4, 3:59 AMNov 4, 10:20 PM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask3.5775¢
  • ask1061¢
  • ask2060¢
  • ask259¢
  • ask50059¢
  • ask9958¢
  • ask67154¢
  • ask6853¢
spread2¢mid 52¢
  • bid50051¢
  • bid3036¢
  • bid20035¢
  • bid5225¢
  • bid30025¢
  • bid1,00022¢
  • bid520¢
  • bid2013¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If nuclear fusion is achieved before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 4, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2040 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2040 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXFUSION-40-JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 46% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
23h ago53¢75bought yes
23h ago53¢157bought yes
6d ago51¢8bought no
10d ago51¢11bought no
10d ago52¢1bought no
10d ago51¢4bought no
10d ago52¢15bought yes
10d ago52¢0.71bought yes
20d ago52¢4.29bought yes
20d ago52¢5bought yes
27d ago47¢0.27bought no
1mo ago48¢5bought no
1mo ago48¢0.22bought no
1mo ago48¢15bought no
1mo ago48¢69bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.