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Nuclear fusion·closes in 162mo

When will nuclear fusion be achieved?

YES means Before 2040

24h volume
5.91
10.9k lifetime
Open interest
2,879
−506 over 7d
Spread
3¢
500 × 503 at the touch
24h range
36¢ – 54¢
37 recent trades
Chance of YES
54%+5

A YES contract costs 54¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
46%

costs 49¢

YES bid / ask
51¢ / 54¢
NO bid / ask
46¢ / 49¢
24h low 36¢24h high 54¢
Recent buying3% YES · 97% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
30¢40¢50¢60¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1080¢
  • ask1.7875¢
  • ask1061¢
  • ask2060¢
  • ask259¢
  • ask50059¢
  • ask9958¢
  • ask50354¢
spread3¢mid 52¢
  • bid50051¢
  • bid4236¢
  • bid3036¢
  • bid20035¢
  • bid30034¢
  • bid1,16323¢
  • bid1,00022¢
  • bid520¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If nuclear fusion is achieved before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 4, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2040 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2040 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXFUSION-40-JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 37 trades, 3% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
45m ago54¢0.24bought yes
45m ago54¢1.54bought yes
8h ago51¢1.34bought no
23h ago54¢1.79bought yes
23h ago36¢1bought no
5d ago49¢1bought no
6d ago44¢100bought no
6d ago41¢100bought no
6d ago39¢100bought no
6d ago40¢22bought no
6d ago46¢92bought no
6d ago37¢100bought no
6d ago40¢100bought no
6d ago47¢20bought no
6d ago38¢100bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.