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Next G7 leader out·closes in 221mo

Will Prime Minister of Italy be the first to leave office?

YES means Giorgia Meloni

24h volume
0
2,658 lifetime
Open interest
1,877
+0 over 24h
Spread
1¢
17 × 1 at the touch
24h range
–
32 recent trades
Chance of YES
13%

A YES contract costs 14¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
87%

costs 87¢

YES bid / ask
13¢ / 14¢
NO bid / ask
86¢ / 87¢
Recent buying99% YES · 1% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢15¢20¢volNov 4, 4:17 AMNov 5, 1:29 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1638¢
  • ask2035¢
  • ask2330¢
  • ask8928¢
  • ask2525¢
  • ask20020¢
  • ask1519¢
  • ask114¢
spread1¢mid 14¢
  • bid1713¢
  • bid20012¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the individual holding the title of Prime Minister of Italy at the time of Issuance is the first within G7 leaders to leave their position, then the market resolves to Yes.

The individual must actually leave office and no longer hold their title. An announcement of resignation or intention to leave is not sufficient. In the event of death, the market will resolve to the last traded price prior to death, unless such a price is not available, not logically consistent, or not representative of a fair settlement value, in which case the Exchange may determine a fair value in its sole discretion.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 20 · 7:30 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2045 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2045 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXG7LEADEROUT-26JUL20-GMEL
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 99¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 32 trades, 99% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago13¢1bought no
3d ago13¢3bought no
3d ago13¢1bought no
3d ago20¢2bought yes
3d ago12¢1bought no
3d ago12¢1bought no
3d ago20¢2bought yes
3d ago20¢2bought yes
3d ago13¢4bought no
3d ago20¢2bought yes
3d ago20¢2bought yes
3d ago12¢4bought no
3d ago20¢2bought yes
3d ago20¢2bought yes
10d ago11¢5bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.