Will AfD win the next election to the German Bundestag?
YES means AfD
- 24h volume
- 0
- 12.1k lifetime
- Open interest
- 7,896
- +0.11 over 7d
- Spread
- 3¢
- 10 × 506 at the touch
- 24h range
- –
- 50 recent trades
A YES contract costs 87¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 16¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
- ask70095¢
- ask19694¢
- ask14393¢
- ask392¢
- ask50090¢
- ask50089¢
- ask29288¢
- ask50687¢
- bid1084¢
- bid15483¢
- bid8382¢
- bid50081¢
- bid50070¢
- bid6462¢
- bid12561¢
- bid17159¢
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If AfD wins the next election to the German Bundestag, then the market resolves to Yes.
For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. For purposes of this market, the seats won by the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) will be combined and treated as a single CDU/CSU option This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.
- opened
- Jul 28 · 4:23 PM UTC
- closes
- Mar 25, 2030 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Mar 25, 2030 · 2:00 PM UTC
- ticker
- KXGERELECTION-29MAR25-AFD
Other outcomes in this event
Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 109¢).
Recent trades
Over the last 50 trades, 73% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2d ago | 84¢ | 6 | bought no |
| 3d ago | 87¢ | 0.11 | bought yes |
| 4d ago | 84¢ | 2.32 | bought no |
| 5d ago | 85¢ | 50 | bought no |
| 5d ago | 82¢ | 417 | bought no |
| 5d ago | 85¢ | 2.73 | bought no |
| 5d ago | 85¢ | 6.32 | bought no |
| 5d ago | 83¢ | 24 | bought no |
| 7d ago | 87¢ | 1.13 | bought yes |
| 7d ago | 88¢ | 8.01 | bought no |
| 7d ago | 89¢ | 3.34 | bought yes |
| 8d ago | 89¢ | 2.23 | bought yes |
| 11d ago | 86¢ | 2.27 | bought no |
| 12d ago | 87¢ | 1.13 | bought yes |
| 12d ago | 87¢ | 2.27 | bought yes |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.