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* Next German federal election winner·closes in 43mo

Will FDP win the next election to the German Bundestag?

YES means FDP

24h volume
0
11.8k lifetime
Open interest
2,500
Spread
1¢
0 × 1,390 at the touch
24h range
–
22 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs 1¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 1¢
NO bid / ask
99¢ / 100¢
Recent buying27% YES · 73% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask12099¢
  • ask18098¢
  • ask2523¢
  • ask1,30622¢
  • ask5004¢
  • ask502¢
  • ask1,3901¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If FDP wins the next election to the German Bundestag, then the market resolves to Yes.

    For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. For purposes of this market, the seats won by the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) will be combined and treated as a single CDU/CSU option This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Jul 28 · 4:23 PM UTC
    closes
    Mar 25, 2030 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Mar 25, 2030 · 2:00 PM UTC
    ticker
    KXGERELECTION-29MAR25-FDP
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 109¢).

    Recent trades

    Over the last 22 trades, 27% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    2mo ago1¢25bought no
    2mo ago1¢140bought no
    2mo ago1¢15bought no
    2mo ago1¢50bought no
    2mo ago1¢55bought no
    2mo ago1¢25bought no
    2mo ago1¢620bought no
    2mo ago1¢570bought no
    2mo ago2¢25bought yes
    2mo ago2¢620bought yes
    2mo ago2¢2,500bought yes
    2mo ago1¢450bought no
    2mo ago1¢50bought no
    2mo ago1¢50bought no
    2mo ago1¢950bought no

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.