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Government budget cuts·closes in 6mo

Will government spending decrease by 1000 before 2026?

YES means At least 1 trillion

24h volume
0
29.0k lifetime
Open interest
7,069
+915 over 90d
Spread
3¢
333 × 6.61 at the touch
24h range
–
32 recent trades
Chance of YES
0%

A YES contract costs 4¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
100%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 4¢
NO bid / ask
97¢ / 100¢
Recent buying52% YES · 48% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volJun 26Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask56¢
  • ask255¢
  • ask2634¢
  • ask2004¢
  • ask1504¢
  • ask154¢
  • ask114¢
  • ask6.614¢
spread3¢mid 2¢
  • bid3330¢
  • bid5560¢
  • bid5500¢
  • bid6,0030¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If government spending decreases by at least 1000 billion during Q4 2024 to Q4 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 13, 2024 · 3:00 AM UTC
closes
Mar 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Mar 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
1000
ticker
KXGOVTCUTS-26-1000
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 32 trades, 52% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago1¢2bought no
4d ago2¢2bought no
4d ago0¢444bought no
4d ago3¢2bought no
4d ago1¢249bought no
4d ago3¢500bought no
11d ago3¢200bought no
11d ago3¢2bought no
14d ago4¢70bought yes
14d ago4¢37bought yes
14d ago4¢10bought yes
15d ago4¢489bought yes
15d ago4¢500bought yes
15d ago4¢10bought yes
15d ago4¢200bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.