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Government budget cuts·closes in 6mo

Will government spending decrease by 2000 before 2026?

YES means At least 2 trillion

24h volume
0
35.4k lifetime
Open interest
15.9k
+10 over 7d
Spread
3¢
43 × 190 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
7%

A YES contract costs 7¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
94%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 7¢
NO bid / ask
94¢ / 97¢
Recent buying82% YES · 18% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5,00093¢
  • ask55093¢
  • ask24733¢
  • ask40330¢
  • ask509¢
  • ask508¢
  • ask2007¢
  • ask1906¢
spread3¢mid 5¢
  • bid433¢
  • bid482¢
  • bid1802¢
  • bid1062¢
  • bid3001¢
  • bid481¢
  • bid4001¢
  • bid5040¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If government spending decreases by at least 2000 billion during Q4 2024 to Q4 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 13, 2024 · 3:00 AM UTC
closes
Mar 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Mar 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
2000
ticker
KXGOVTCUTS-26-2000
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 82% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago7¢10bought yes
2d ago3¢4bought no
2d ago3¢1bought no
7d ago3¢2bought no
7d ago4¢500bought no
7d ago4¢20bought no
7d ago8¢29bought yes
7d ago4¢10bought yes
7d ago10¢653bought yes
7d ago4¢17bought yes
7d ago6¢200bought yes
7d ago30¢197bought yes
7d ago5¢250bought yes
7d ago8¢32bought yes
7d ago9¢16bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.