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Government budget cuts·closes in 6mo

Will government spending decrease by 250 before 2026?

YES means At least 250 billion

24h volume
191
105.3k lifetime
Open interest
34.1k
+1,400 over 90d
Spread
7¢
4.66 × 153 at the touch
24h range
3¢ – 11¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
3%−9

A YES contract costs 10¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
97%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 10¢
NO bid / ask
90¢ / 97¢
24h low 3¢24h high 11¢
Recent buying70% YES · 30% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢volJun 25Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2256¢
  • ask2150¢
  • ask20049¢
  • ask88748¢
  • ask1515¢
  • ask1112¢
  • ask50711¢
  • ask15310¢
spread7¢mid 7¢
  • bid4.663¢
  • bid143¢
  • bid433¢
  • bid2002¢
  • bid162¢
  • bid111¢
  • bid161¢
  • bid5051¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If government spending decreases by at least 250 billion during Q4 2024 to Q4 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 13, 2024 · 3:00 AM UTC
closes
Mar 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Mar 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
250
ticker
KXGOVTCUTS-26-250
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 70% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3h ago3¢63bought no
3h ago4¢15bought no
3h ago5¢1bought no
3h ago4¢43bought no
3h ago3¢16bought no
3h ago3¢10bought no
5h ago11¢43bought yes
1d ago9¢5.92bought yes
1d ago11¢11bought yes
1d ago12¢17bought yes
1d ago8¢12bought yes
1d ago9¢9.08bought yes
1d ago8¢1bought yes
2d ago8¢35bought yes
2d ago7¢190bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.