Will government spending decrease by 100 before 2028?
YES means At least 100 billion
- 24h volume
- 0
- 312 lifetime
- Open interest
- 292
- +292 over 90d
- Spread
- 9¢
- 200 × 200 at the touch
- 24h range
- –
- 43 recent trades
A YES contract costs 14¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 95¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
- ask8399¢
- ask5798¢
- ask5491¢
- ask35554¢
- ask7936¢
- ask20014¢
- bid2005¢
- bid382¢
- bid621¢
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If government spending (FGEXPND) is at least $100 billion below the Q4 2024 level in any quarter through Q4 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Each quarter from Q1 2025 to Q4 2028 is compared against Q4 2024.
- opened
- Jul 22 · 3:00 PM UTC
- closes
- Mar 31, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Mar 31, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
- floor
- 100
- ticker
- KXGOVTCUTS-28-100
Other outcomes in this event
Outcomes in this event settle independently.
Recent trades
Over the last 43 trades, 95% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7d ago | 9¢ | 48 | bought yes |
| 11d ago | 14¢ | 1 | bought no |
| 11d ago | 13¢ | 1 | bought no |
| 11d ago | 12¢ | 1 | bought no |
| 11d ago | 16¢ | 1 | bought no |
| 11d ago | 15¢ | 1 | bought no |
| 14d ago | 11¢ | 2.55 | bought yes |
| 14d ago | 11¢ | 5.68 | bought yes |
| 14d ago | 12¢ | 71 | bought yes |
| 14d ago | 11¢ | 14 | bought yes |
| 14d ago | 12¢ | 16 | bought yes |
| 14d ago | 11¢ | 2.42 | bought yes |
| 15d ago | 96¢ | 0.66 | bought yes |
| 15d ago | 11¢ | 3 | bought yes |
| 17d ago | 11¢ | 1 | bought no |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.