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Government budget cuts·closes in 31mo

Will government spending decrease by 150 before 2028?

YES means At least 150 billion

24h volume
0
73 lifetime
Open interest
46
+46 over 90d
Spread
9¢
200 × 200 at the touch
24h range
–
33 recent trades
Chance of YES
33%

A YES contract costs 14¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
67%

costs 95¢

YES bid / ask
5¢ / 14¢
NO bid / ask
86¢ / 95¢
Recent buying82% YES · 18% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢volAug 4Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5099¢
  • ask59776¢
  • ask20075¢
  • ask2533¢
  • ask20014¢
spread9¢mid 10¢
  • bid2005¢
  • bid372¢
  • bid601¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If government spending (FGEXPND) is at least $150 billion below the Q4 2024 level in any quarter through Q4 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Each quarter from Q1 2025 to Q4 2028 is compared against Q4 2024.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 22 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Mar 31, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Mar 31, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
150
ticker
KXGOVTCUTS-28-150
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 33 trades, 82% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago33¢0.28bought yes
3d ago8¢0.2bought no
5d ago9¢0.2bought yes
13d ago11¢1bought no
13d ago11¢1bought no
13d ago11¢1bought no
13d ago11¢26bought yes
15d ago11¢3bought yes
15d ago97¢0.65bought yes
17d ago11¢1bought no
17d ago11¢1bought no
17d ago11¢1bought no
17d ago11¢1bought no
17d ago8¢1bought yes
20d ago12¢1bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.