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Government budget cuts·closes in 31mo

Will government spending decrease by $200 billion before 2028?

YES means At least 200 billion

24h volume
0
677 lifetime
Open interest
516
Spread
6¢
1 × 200 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs 13¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 93¢

YES bid / ask
7¢ / 13¢
NO bid / ask
87¢ / 93¢
Recent buying61% YES · 39% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5399¢
  • ask5798¢
  • ask3997¢
  • ask2071¢
  • ask35463¢
  • ask2328¢
  • ask20013¢
spread6¢mid 10¢
  • bid17¢
  • bid16¢
  • bid15¢
  • bid2014¢
  • bid2013¢
  • bid12¢
  • bid11¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If government spending (FGEXPND) is at least $200 billion below the Q4 2024 level in any quarter through Q4 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Each quarter from Q1 2025 to Q4 2028 is compared against Q4 2024.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 22 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Mar 31, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Mar 31, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
200
ticker
KXGOVTCUTS-28-200
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 61% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
10d ago1¢2bought no
10d ago1¢1bought no
10d ago1¢1bought no
10d ago1¢1bought no
10d ago1¢3bought no
14d ago11¢8.55bought yes
14d ago11¢2.56bought yes
15d ago28¢2.17bought yes
15d ago11¢3bought yes
17d ago11¢1bought no
17d ago11¢1bought no
20d ago11¢4bought no
20d ago10¢1bought no
21d ago10¢1bought yes
21d ago10¢1bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.