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Government budget cuts·closes in 31mo

Will government spending decrease by $250 billion before 2028?

YES means At least 250 billion

24h volume
0
35.6k lifetime
Open interest
22.5k
+724 over 90d
Spread
4¢
200 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs 8¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 8¢
NO bid / ask
93¢ / 97¢
Recent buying49% YES · 51% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢20¢volJun 24Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask3645¢
  • ask1243¢
  • ask1242¢
  • ask1535¢
  • ask1,18524¢
  • ask20012¢
  • ask568¢
  • ask57¢
spread4¢mid 5¢
  • bid2003¢
  • bid5501¢
  • bid1,9951¢
  • bid7061¢
  • bid2380¢
  • bid1,0040¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If government spending (FGEXPND) is at least $250 billion below the Q4 2024 level in any quarter through Q4 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Each quarter from Q1 2025 to Q4 2028 is compared against Q4 2024.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 13, 2024 · 7:00 PM UTC
closes
Mar 31, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Mar 31, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
250
ticker
KXGOVTCUTS-28-250
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 49% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
10d ago1¢5.05bought no
10d ago1¢2.32bought no
10d ago6¢1bought no
10d ago5¢1bought no
10d ago7¢1bought no
10d ago5¢1bought no
10d ago6¢1bought no
10d ago4¢1bought no
10d ago2¢1bought no
10d ago3¢1bought no
13d ago7¢1bought no
15d ago8¢12bought yes
15d ago8¢12bought yes
17d ago8¢20bought yes
17d ago8¢48bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.