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Government budget cuts·closes in 31mo

Will government spending decrease by 50 before 2028?

YES means At least 50 billion

24h volume
0
736 lifetime
Open interest
527
Spread
8¢
200 × 100 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
10%

A YES contract costs 14¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
90%

costs 94¢

YES bid / ask
6¢ / 14¢
NO bid / ask
86¢ / 94¢
Recent buying81% YES · 19% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5099¢
  • ask5096¢
  • ask3595¢
  • ask44560¢
  • ask427¢
  • ask20015¢
  • ask10014¢
spread8¢mid 10¢
  • bid2006¢
  • bid392¢
  • bid571¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If government spending (FGEXPND) is at least $50 billion below the Q4 2024 level in any quarter through Q4 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Each quarter from Q1 2025 to Q4 2028 is compared against Q4 2024.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 22 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Mar 31, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Mar 31, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
50
ticker
KXGOVTCUTS-28-50
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 81% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5d ago10¢6.51bought yes
5d ago10¢31bought yes
11d ago8¢1bought no
11d ago9¢1bought no
11d ago7¢1bought no
11d ago9¢3bought yes
13d ago7¢1bought no
13d ago8¢1bought no
13d ago9¢1bought no
13d ago9¢1bought yes
13d ago9¢1bought yes
13d ago9¢1bought yes
13d ago8¢1bought no
13d ago7¢1bought no
13d ago9¢1bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.