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Greenland acquisition·closes in 3mo

Will the United States acquire any part of Greenland before Jan 1, 2027?

YES means Before 2027

24h volume
804
535.2k lifetime
Open interest
151.3k
−4,012 over 90d
Spread
3¢
7.72 × 3,719 at the touch
24h range
3¢ – 6¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
6%+0

A YES contract costs 6¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
94%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 6¢
NO bid / ask
94¢ / 97¢
24h low 3¢24h high 6¢
Recent buying29% YES · 71% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢volJun 24Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2,0007¢
  • ask1,0007¢
  • ask5007¢
  • ask5007¢
  • ask5007¢
  • ask1,0656¢
  • ask5116¢
  • ask3,7196¢
spread3¢mid 5¢
  • bid7.723¢
  • bid3,6223¢
  • bid36.3k3¢
  • bid1303¢
  • bid692¢
  • bid5,0022¢
  • bid1,7671¢
  • bid2,5171¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the United States acquires any part of Greenland before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

An announcement by the United States and the entity that controls any part of Greenland that it will happen is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. any part of Greenland must come under formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, where it was not previously. Merely leasing a given part in territory – for example, setting up a military base on leased territory – is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 22 · 1:00 AM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXGREENTERRITORY-29-27
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 29% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5m ago6¢2bought yes
5m ago3¢1bought no
1h ago6¢1bought yes
12h ago6¢364bought yes
12h ago6¢1.1bought yes
12h ago6¢5bought yes
12h ago6¢0.92bought yes
12h ago6¢1.09bought yes
12h ago6¢4.36bought yes
12h ago6¢1.93bought yes
13h ago3¢175bought no
13h ago3¢5bought no
13h ago3¢56bought no
15h ago3¢14bought no
15h ago3¢3bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.