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Number of hurricanes·closes in 27d

Will there be more than 5 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?

YES means Above 5

24h volume
1,865
22.5k lifetime
Open interest
8,008
+194 over 30d
Spread
1¢
6.38 × 3,639 at the touch
24h range
1¢ – 16¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%−4

A YES contract costs 2¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
1¢ / 2¢
NO bid / ask
98¢ / 99¢
24h low 1¢24h high 16¢
Recent buying15% YES · 85% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢volOct 6Nov 4

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask24811¢
  • ask1.4610¢
  • ask58¢
  • ask227¢
  • ask1,5005¢
  • ask124¢
  • ask403¢
  • ask3,6392¢
spread1¢mid 2¢
  • bid6.381¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 5 hurricanes of hurricane category 1 or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026.

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 1 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 2 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 2 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
5
ticker
KXHURCTOT-26DEC01-T5
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 15% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
12m ago1¢2.34bought no
10h ago1¢0.22bought no
10h ago1¢5.3bought no
10h ago1¢2.76bought no
10h ago1¢2.21bought no
10h ago1¢251bought no
10h ago1¢0.43bought no
10h ago1¢5.34bought no
10h ago1¢160bought no
10h ago1¢1,020bought no
14h ago2¢200bought yes
14h ago2¢200bought no
14h ago2¢10bought no
14h ago2¢3bought no
14h ago2¢2.07bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.