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Number of hurricanes·closes in 27d

Will there be more than 8 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?

YES means Above 8

24h volume
0
4,464 lifetime
Open interest
2,012
Spread
1¢
0 × 5,392 at the touch
24h range
–
28 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs 1¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 1¢
NO bid / ask
99¢ / 100¢
Recent buying69% YES · 31% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5.2275¢
  • ask0.4369¢
  • ask4,06761¢
  • ask1160¢
  • ask2009¢
  • ask338¢
  • ask5,1102¢
  • ask5,3921¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 8 hurricanes of hurricane category 1 or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

    The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Apr 1 · 2:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Dec 2 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Dec 2 · 3:00 PM UTC
    floor
    8
    ticker
    KXHURCTOT-26DEC01-T8
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Outcomes in this event settle independently.

    Recent trades

    Over the last 28 trades, 69% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    25d ago1¢25bought no
    27d ago1¢10bought yes
    27d ago1¢245bought yes
    27d ago1¢25bought yes
    1mo ago1¢79bought no
    1mo ago1¢93bought no
    1mo ago1¢17bought no
    1mo ago2¢1bought yes
    2mo ago1¢20bought yes
    2mo ago1¢188bought yes
    2mo ago1¢5.81bought yes
    2mo ago1¢93bought yes
    2mo ago1¢13bought no
    2mo ago2¢7.46bought yes
    2mo ago1¢100bought yes

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.