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Number of major hurricanes·closes in 27d

Will there be more than 1 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?

YES means Above 1

24h volume
1,819
60.0k lifetime
Open interest
18.1k
+674 over 24h
Spread
3¢
26 × 218 at the touch
24h range
9¢ – 25¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
13%

A YES contract costs 14¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
87%

costs 89¢

YES bid / ask
11¢ / 14¢
NO bid / ask
86¢ / 89¢
24h low 9¢24h high 25¢
Recent buying79% YES · 21% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢20¢30¢volNov 4, 2:47 AMNov 5, 2:25 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask20023¢
  • ask5622¢
  • ask10021¢
  • ask4120¢
  • ask24518¢
  • ask15117¢
  • ask1916¢
  • ask21814¢
spread3¢mid 13¢
  • bid2611¢
  • bid1310¢
  • bid229¢
  • bid298¢
  • bid427¢
  • bid1336¢
  • bid3285¢
  • bid2,8484¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 1 hurricanes of hurricane category 3 or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event, or one day after December 01, 2026.

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 1 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 2 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 2 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
1
ticker
KXHURCTOTMAJ-26DEC01-T1
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 79% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4m ago13¢2bought yes
4m ago13¢1bought yes
28m ago12¢7.84bought yes
1h ago14¢14bought no
1h ago11¢6.22bought no
1h ago14¢2bought no
1h ago12¢67bought no
1h ago13¢3.79bought no
1h ago11¢132bought no
1h ago11¢17bought no
1h ago14¢1bought no
1h ago11¢8bought no
1h ago13¢29bought no
1h ago12¢19bought no
1h ago18¢5.25bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.