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Impeach a member of Trump's cabinet·closes in 3mo

Will any member of the Cabinet (defined as: the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Health and Human Services, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Secretary of Transportation, Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Education, Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Secretary of Homeland Security, Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Director of National Intelligence, Trade Representative, Administrator of the Small Business Administration, White House Chief of Staff) be impeached before Jan 1, 2027?

YES means Before 2027

24h volume
0
52.5k lifetime
Open interest
19.2k
+3,488 over 30d
Spread
3¢
506 × 164 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
5%

A YES contract costs 8¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
95%

costs 95¢

YES bid / ask
5¢ / 8¢
NO bid / ask
92¢ / 95¢
Recent buying71% YES · 29% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢10¢20¢30¢40¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10045¢
  • ask73744¢
  • ask12243¢
  • ask5442¢
  • ask50010¢
  • ask8810¢
  • ask5188¢
  • ask1648¢
spread3¢mid 6¢
  • bid5065¢
  • bid1402¢
  • bid532¢
  • bid2002¢
  • bid1,0002¢
  • bid581¢
  • bid1,8101¢
  • bid1,0000¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a member of the cabinet is impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The cabinet is defined as the following: the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Health and Human Services, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Secretary of Transportation, Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Education, Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Secretary of Homeland Security, Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Director of National Intelligence, Trade Representative, Administrator of the Small Business Administration, and White House Chief of Staff.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 12, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXIMPEACHCABINET-27JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 71% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago5¢4.3bought no
3d ago5¢1.16bought no
3d ago7¢722bought yes
4d ago5¢138bought no
4d ago7¢111bought yes
4d ago7¢164bought yes
4d ago7¢14bought yes
5d ago7¢1.38bought yes
5d ago7¢138bought yes
8d ago7¢6.9bought yes
8d ago10¢500bought yes
8d ago9¢250bought yes
8d ago8¢500bought yes
8d ago16¢11bought yes
8d ago26¢20bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.