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Who will be the Prime Minister of India after their election?·closes in 44mo

Will Amit Shah become Prime Minister of India following the next Indian general election?

YES means Amit Shah

24h volume
0
4,737 lifetime
Open interest
1,263
Spread
6¢
455 × 200 at the touch
24h range
–
22 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%

A YES contract costs 7¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
1¢ / 7¢
NO bid / ask
93¢ / 99¢
Recent buying38% YES · 62% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5099¢
  • ask98277¢
  • ask40276¢
  • ask1079¢
  • ask258¢
  • ask2007¢
spread6¢mid 4¢
  • bid4551¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Amit Shah becomes Prime Minister of India as a result of government formation following the next Indian general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Apr 30, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government). If no government forms by Apr 30, 2030, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 20 · 9:00 PM UTC
closes
Apr 30, 2030 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Apr 30, 2030 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXINDIANPM-29APR30-ASHA
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 93¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 22 trades, 38% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
25d ago2¢4.69bought yes
2mo ago2¢30bought yes
2mo ago2¢89bought yes
2mo ago1¢7bought no
2mo ago2¢3bought yes
2mo ago2¢5bought yes
2mo ago2¢108bought yes
2mo ago2¢1,501bought yes
2mo ago2¢25bought yes
2mo ago2¢25bought yes
2mo ago1¢205bought no
2mo ago1¢50bought no
2mo ago3¢1,501bought no
2mo ago3¢25bought no
2mo ago3¢33bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.