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Who will be the Prime Minister of India after their election?·closes in 44mo

Will Narendra Modi become Prime Minister of India following the next Indian general election?

YES means Narendra Modi

24h volume
0
3,811 lifetime
Open interest
1,854
Spread
5¢
200 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
51%

A YES contract costs 49¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
49%

costs 56¢

YES bid / ask
44¢ / 49¢
NO bid / ask
51¢ / 56¢
Recent buying30% YES · 70% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5099¢
  • ask37092¢
  • ask2291¢
  • ask1,41190¢
  • ask11574¢
  • ask24853¢
  • ask8050¢
  • ask549¢
spread5¢mid 47¢
  • bid20044¢
  • bid29517¢
  • bid23416¢
  • bid501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Narendra Modi becomes Prime Minister of India as a result of government formation following the next Indian general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Apr 30, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government). If no government forms by Apr 30, 2030, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 20 · 9:00 PM UTC
closes
Apr 30, 2030 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Apr 30, 2030 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXINDIANPM-29APR30-NMOD
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 93¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 30% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
8d ago51¢10bought yes
11d ago51¢0.17bought no
11d ago45¢100bought no
13d ago53¢10bought yes
19d ago51¢9.83bought no
25d ago53¢4.69bought yes
28d ago53¢18bought yes
1mo ago52¢1.86bought yes
1mo ago52¢1.86bought yes
1mo ago45¢10bought no
1mo ago53¢5.91bought yes
2mo ago45¢0.3bought no
2mo ago48¢200bought no
2mo ago49¢26bought no
2mo ago53¢73bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.