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Who will be the Prime Minister of India after their election?·closes in 44mo

Will Yogi Adityanath become Prime Minister of India following the next Indian general election?

YES means Yogi Adityanath

24h volume
0
3,771 lifetime
Open interest
1,265
+0 over 24h
Spread
5¢
33 × 10 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
20%

A YES contract costs 21¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
80%

costs 84¢

YES bid / ask
16¢ / 21¢
NO bid / ask
79¢ / 84¢
Recent buying57% YES · 43% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢15¢20¢25¢volSep 20, 8:01 AMSep 21, 4:20 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask12099¢
  • ask28598¢
  • ask38968¢
  • ask667¢
  • ask329¢
  • ask20024¢
  • ask5622¢
  • ask1021¢
spread5¢mid 19¢
  • bid3316¢
  • bid9.215¢
  • bid20014¢
  • bid3602¢
  • bid2671¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Yogi Adityanath becomes Prime Minister of India as a result of government formation following the next Indian general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Apr 30, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government). If no government forms by Apr 30, 2030, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 20 · 9:00 PM UTC
closes
Apr 30, 2030 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Apr 30, 2030 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXINDIANPM-29APR30-YADI
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 93¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 57% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
25d ago20¢4.69bought yes
28d ago21¢4.51bought yes
2mo ago18¢100bought no
2mo ago18¢5bought no
2mo ago17¢42bought no
2mo ago20¢200bought no
2mo ago23¢2bought no
2mo ago23¢200bought no
2mo ago23¢3bought no
2mo ago24¢0.99bought yes
2mo ago24¢2bought yes
2mo ago24¢5bought yes
2mo ago23¢125bought no
2mo ago26¢5bought yes
2mo ago26¢78bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.