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Insurrection·closes in 3mo

Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?

YES means Before 2027

24h volume
133
353.5k lifetime
Open interest
120.3k
Spread
2¢
57 × 49 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
15%−4

A YES contract costs 17¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
85%

costs 85¢

YES bid / ask
15¢ / 17¢
NO bid / ask
83¢ / 85¢
Recent buying69% YES · 31% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask20024¢
  • ask2,43923¢
  • ask56722¢
  • ask28821¢
  • ask19820¢
  • ask22019¢
  • ask79018¢
  • ask4917¢
spread2¢mid 16¢
  • bid5715¢
  • bid1214¢
  • bid11411¢
  • bid2,02010¢
  • bid39¢
  • bid1,2349¢
  • bid1668¢
  • bid17¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the President of the United States has invoked the Insurrection Act to deploy the United States military and/or the federalized National Guard within the United States before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 3 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXINSURRECTION-29-27
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 69% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5h ago15¢5bought no
5h ago17¢56bought yes
7h ago15¢8.66bought no
7h ago15¢8.34bought no
8h ago17¢2.76bought yes
8h ago17¢2.79bought yes
10h ago15¢17bought no
12h ago16¢11bought no
13h ago17¢5.55bought yes
13h ago17¢11bought yes
16h ago17¢5.55bought yes
2d ago19¢188bought yes
2d ago19¢80bought yes
2d ago17¢3.53bought yes
2d ago17¢10bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.