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INXDIRY·closes in 3mo

Will the S&P 500 be above 8000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

YES means 8,000 or above

24h volume
0
917 lifetime
Open interest
415
Spread
3¢
1.12 × 116 at the touch
24h range
–
38 recent trades
Chance of YES
38%

A YES contract costs 38¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
62%

costs 65¢

YES bid / ask
35¢ / 38¢
NO bid / ask
62¢ / 65¢
Recent buying30% YES · 70% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask4250¢
  • ask6349¢
  • ask2848¢
  • ask2946¢
  • ask23145¢
  • ask6544¢
  • ask8.4743¢
  • ask11638¢
spread3¢mid 37¢
  • bid1.1235¢
  • bid6234¢
  • bid5033¢
  • bid1803¢
  • bid3.342¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is above 8000, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
May 29 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31 · 9:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31 · 9:00 PM UTC
floor
8000.0001
ticker
KXINXDIRY-26DEC31H1600-T8000
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 38 trades, 30% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago38¢5bought yes
1d ago37¢5bought yes
1d ago34¢15bought no
3d ago33¢0.58bought no
4d ago35¢26bought no
4d ago29¢2.76bought no
8d ago40¢18bought no
8d ago39¢46bought no
9d ago41¢1.22bought no
9d ago41¢5bought no
9d ago42¢10bought no
11d ago42¢100bought no
11d ago43¢4.28bought no
11d ago43¢4.38bought no
11d ago44¢4.38bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.