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INXDIRY·closes in 3mo

Will the S&P 500 be above 8300 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

YES means 8,300 or above

24h volume
0
304 lifetime
Open interest
194
Spread
12¢
15 × 21 at the touch
24h range
–
28 recent trades
Chance of YES
8%

A YES contract costs 15¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
92%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 15¢
NO bid / ask
85¢ / 97¢
Recent buying20% YES · 80% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1373¢
  • ask4572¢
  • ask20571¢
  • ask370¢
  • ask10818¢
  • ask1417¢
  • ask1016¢
  • ask2115¢
spread12¢mid 9¢
  • bid153¢
  • bid52¢
  • bid151¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is above 8300, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
May 29 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31 · 9:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31 · 9:00 PM UTC
floor
8300.0001
ticker
KXINXDIRY-26DEC31H1600-T8300
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 28 trades, 20% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5d ago8¢10bought no
6d ago8¢0.14bought no
6d ago8¢50bought no
6d ago7¢50bought no
6d ago7¢3.82bought no
6d ago7¢4.37bought no
6d ago8¢5bought no
6d ago9¢3.82bought no
9d ago12¢5bought no
10d ago13¢8.11bought no
10d ago13¢8.08bought no
10d ago13¢8.08bought no
10d ago13¢8.76bought no
19d ago22¢2bought yes
29d ago22¢1.51bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.