galdor.xyz
Admin
INXDIRY·closes in 3mo

Will the S&P 500 be above 8400 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

YES means 8,400 or above

24h volume
0
264 lifetime
Open interest
158
Spread
5¢
0 × 14 at the touch
24h range
–
16 recent trades
Chance of YES
5%

A YES contract costs 5¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
95%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 5¢
NO bid / ask
95¢ / 100¢
Recent buying46% YES · 54% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask280¢
  • ask6319¢
  • ask1418¢
  • ask4.8115¢
  • ask9.0214¢
  • ask10010¢
  • ask4.419¢
  • ask145¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is above 8400, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    May 29 · 2:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Dec 31 · 9:00 PM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Dec 31 · 9:00 PM UTC
    floor
    8400.0001
    ticker
    KXINXDIRY-26DEC31H1600-T8400
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Outcomes in this event settle independently.

    Recent trades

    Over the last 16 trades, 46% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    4d ago5¢1bought no
    4d ago6¢27bought yes
    10d ago6¢5bought no
    11d ago6¢1bought no
    11d ago6¢5bought no
    12d ago7¢50bought no
    16d ago10¢3.59bought no
    16d ago9¢5bought no
    16d ago7¢8.36bought no
    16d ago6¢9.9bought no
    1mo ago19¢37bought yes
    1mo ago18¢13bought yes
    2mo ago15¢6.69bought no
    2mo ago16¢5bought no
    2mo ago16¢5bought yes

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.