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INXDIRY·closes in 16mo

Will the S&P 500 be above 8400 on Dec 31, 2027 at 4pm EST?

YES means 8,400 or above

24h volume
9.13
1,371 lifetime
Open interest
1,190
Spread
3¢
258 × 200 at the touch
24h range
–
28 recent trades
Chance of YES
47%+2

A YES contract costs 50¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
53%

costs 53¢

YES bid / ask
47¢ / 50¢
NO bid / ask
50¢ / 53¢
Recent buying18% YES · 82% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10.0k99¢
  • ask5298¢
  • ask1686¢
  • ask1085¢
  • ask10658¢
  • ask5057¢
  • ask20050¢
spread3¢mid 49¢
  • bid25847¢
  • bid1,14746¢
  • bid9.134¢
  • bid482¢
  • bid10.0k1¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2027 at 4pm EST is above 8400, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 17 · 4:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2027 · 9:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2027 · 9:00 PM UTC
floor
8400.0001
ticker
KXINXDIRY-27DEC31H1600-T8400
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 28 trades, 18% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6h ago47¢9.13bought no
6d ago45¢20bought no
7d ago45¢9.85bought no
7d ago49¢9.85bought yes
7d ago45¢2.01bought no
7d ago45¢2bought yes
7d ago48¢2.18bought yes
8d ago48¢20bought yes
8d ago48¢2.01bought yes
13d ago42¢4.18bought no
13d ago47¢10bought yes
15d ago42¢10bought no
15d ago46¢16bought yes
15d ago46¢10bought yes
16d ago42¢11bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.