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S&P 500 max yearly·closes in 2mo

Will the maximum SP500 value reach 8199.99 by Jan 1, 2027?

YES means 8,200 or above

24h volume
3,969
223.2k lifetime
Open interest
88.6k
Spread
3¢
19 × 35 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
15%+3

A YES contract costs 16¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
85%

costs 86¢

YES bid / ask
14¢ / 16¢
NO bid / ask
84¢ / 86¢
Recent buying94% YES · 6% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask4624¢
  • ask8717¢
  • ask1117¢
  • ask20717¢
  • ask2217¢
  • ask14017¢
  • ask1117¢
  • ask3516¢
spread3¢mid 15¢
  • bid1914¢
  • bid4214¢
  • bid6313¢
  • bid6613¢
  • bid7.6413¢
  • bid7513¢
  • bid14013¢
  • bid14413¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the value of the S&P 500 index value starting Jan 1, 2026 and ending before Jan 1, 2027 is above 8199.99, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 1 · 5:00 AM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 11:00 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2027 · 5:00 AM UTC
floor
8199.99
ticker
KXINXMAXY-01JAN2027-8199.99
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 94% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5h ago15¢6.13bought yes
8h ago17¢28bought yes
11h ago15¢13bought yes
11h ago15¢12bought yes
11h ago15¢0.19bought yes
11h ago15¢3.98bought yes
11h ago15¢95bought yes
12h ago14¢11bought yes
12h ago14¢3.37bought yes
12h ago14¢12bought yes
12h ago14¢65bought yes
12h ago14¢3.44bought yes
12h ago14¢1.56bought yes
12h ago14¢19bought yes
12h ago15¢2,000bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.