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S&P 500 yearly range·closes in 3mo

Will the S&P 500 be between 7800 and 7999.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

YES means 7,800 to 7,999.99

24h volume
927
478.4k lifetime
Open interest
231.6k
+27.1k over 30d
Spread
1¢
1,255 × 2,458 at the touch
24h range
16¢ – 18¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
16%−2

A YES contract costs 17¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
84%

costs 84¢

YES bid / ask
16¢ / 17¢
NO bid / ask
83¢ / 84¢
24h low 16¢24h high 18¢
Recent buying37% YES · 63% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢15¢20¢25¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2027¢
  • ask4523¢
  • ask11222¢
  • ask4,02021¢
  • ask5,73820¢
  • ask4,35119¢
  • ask3218¢
  • ask2,45817¢
spread1¢mid 17¢
  • bid1,25516¢
  • bid13315¢
  • bid95914¢
  • bid1,20313¢
  • bid1,93512¢
  • bid74911¢
  • bid14410¢
  • bid2009¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 7800-7999.99, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market will close on December 31, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the first release of the data, or one week after December 31, 2026. Pursuant to the Kalshi Rulebook, the Exchange has modified the Source Agency and Underlying for indices markets. See the rules for more information.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 23, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31 · 9:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31 · 9:00 PM UTC
floor
7800
cap
7999.99
ticker
KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B7900
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 107¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 37% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2h ago16¢61bought no
5h ago16¢3.12bought no
5h ago17¢5.55bought yes
6h ago17¢5bought yes
7h ago16¢394bought no
8h ago17¢139bought yes
8h ago17¢53bought yes
9h ago17¢0.03bought no
9h ago17¢10bought no
9h ago17¢9.88bought no
9h ago17¢1.45bought no
9h ago17¢34bought no
9h ago17¢52bought no
12h ago18¢8.07bought yes
12h ago18¢10bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.