galdor.xyz
Admin
S&P 500 yearly range·closes in 3mo

Will the S&P 500 be between 8000 and 8199.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

YES means 8,000 to 8,199.99

24h volume
3,418
516.8k lifetime
Open interest
256.5k
Spread
1¢
2,265 × 888 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
17%−1

A YES contract costs 17¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
83%

costs 84¢

YES bid / ask
16¢ / 17¢
NO bid / ask
83¢ / 84¢
Recent buying54% YES · 46% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask8524¢
  • ask3023¢
  • ask68522¢
  • ask2,16021¢
  • ask4,55720¢
  • ask99519¢
  • ask5018¢
  • ask88817¢
spread1¢mid 17¢
  • bid2,26516¢
  • bid3,39215¢
  • bid15614¢
  • bid1,59513¢
  • bid6912¢
  • bid2,74111¢
  • bid29110¢
  • bid1,6139¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 8000-8199.99, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market will close on December 31, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the first release of the data, or one week after December 31, 2026. Pursuant to the Kalshi Rulebook, the Exchange has modified the Source Agency and Underlying for indices markets. See the rules for more information.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 23, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31 · 9:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31 · 9:00 PM UTC
floor
8000
cap
8199.99
ticker
KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B8100
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 107¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 54% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3h ago17¢111bought yes
3h ago17¢1,000bought yes
5h ago16¢9.46bought no
6h ago17¢35bought no
6h ago17¢0.31bought no
6h ago17¢14bought no
6h ago18¢1.05bought no
6h ago17¢12bought no
6h ago17¢6.3bought no
6h ago17¢34bought no
6h ago17¢5bought no
6h ago17¢84bought no
6h ago17¢0.49bought no
6h ago17¢72bought no
6h ago17¢10bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.