Will the S&P 500 be between 8400 and 8599.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
YES means 8,400 to 8,599.99
- 24h volume
- 192
- 203.2k lifetime
- Open interest
- 163.4k
- +14.4k over 30d
- Spread
- 1¢
- 4,088 × 10.1k at the touch
- 24h range
- 4¢ – 4¢
- 50 recent trades
A YES contract costs 4¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 97¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
- ask5,00013¢
- ask6,00010¢
- ask2,9999¢
- ask8,7968¢
- ask8,4897¢
- ask4,4186¢
- ask6,3285¢
- ask10.1k4¢
- bid4,0883¢
- bid11.2k2¢
- bid4891¢
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 8400-8599.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will close on December 31, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the first release of the data, or one week after December 31, 2026. Pursuant to the Kalshi Rulebook, the Exchange has modified the Source Agency and Underlying for indices markets. See the rules for more information.
- opened
- Dec 23, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
- closes
- Dec 31 · 9:00 PM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Dec 31 · 9:00 PM UTC
- floor
- 8400
- cap
- 8599.99
- ticker
- KXINXY-26DEC31H1600-B8500
Other outcomes in this event
Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 107¢).
Recent trades
Over the last 50 trades, 62% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13h ago | 4¢ | 112 | bought yes |
| 13h ago | 4¢ | 74 | bought yes |
| 13h ago | 4¢ | 6 | bought yes |
| 2d ago | 4¢ | 7 | bought yes |
| 4d ago | 4¢ | 1 | bought yes |
| 4d ago | 4¢ | 19 | bought yes |
| 4d ago | 4¢ | 19 | bought yes |
| 5d ago | 3¢ | 108 | bought no |
| 5d ago | 3¢ | 129 | bought no |
| 5d ago | 3¢ | 15 | bought no |
| 5d ago | 3¢ | 500 | bought no |
| 5d ago | 3¢ | 106 | bought no |
| 5d ago | 3¢ | 1,185 | bought no |
| 6d ago | 4¢ | 1 | bought yes |
| 6d ago | 4¢ | 1 | bought yes |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.