Who will be Israeli defense minister after the election?·closes in 50mo

Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Yoav Gallant is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?

YES means Yoav Gallant

24h volume
0
4 lifetime
Open interest
4
Spread
100 × 200 at the touch
24h range
Chance of YES
2%

A YES contract costs and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
/
NO bid / ask
91¢ / 99¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If it is reported by The Times of Israel after Issuance and before Oct 28, 2030 that Yoav Gallant is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Only reporting from The Times of Israel qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity. This market concerns the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election, including a government formed after repeat elections. A new government is formed when the Knesset expresses confidence in it. A retained incumbent counts if appointed in that new government; continuation in the outgoing government does not. Minister of Defense means the holder of the Defense portfolio, including a Prime Minister who also formally holds it. An acting substitute, deputy minister, additional minister within the Defense Ministry, or Minister of National Security does not count. If the portfolio is initially vacant, the first person subsequently appointed to it in that government counts. Nominations, coalition agreements, intended appointments, and hypothetical scenarios do not qualify as taking office. Later replacements do not change the first officeholder.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 28 · 10:00 PM UTC
closes
Oct 28, 2030 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 4, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXISRDEFMIN-30-YGAL
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 149¢).

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.