Prime Minister of Italy after the next election·closes in 27mo

Will Giorgia Meloni become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

YES means Giorgia Meloni

24h volume: 0; 1,509 lifetime
Open interest: 649; +0 over 24h
Spread: 22¢; 5 × 20 at the touch
24h range: –

Chance of YES

49%

A YES contract costs 47¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

51%

costs 75¢

YES bid / ask

25¢ / 47¢

NO bid / ask

53¢ / 75¢

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask10271¢
ask4870¢
ask20059¢
ask15658¢
ask1357¢
ask1356¢
ask4248¢
ask2047¢

spread22¢mid 36¢

bid525¢
bid40024¢

Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Giorgia Meloni becomes Prime Minister of Italy as a result of government formation following the next Italian general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Dec 22, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government). If no government forms by Dec 22, 2028, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes.

Settlement sources

opened: Aug 11 · 12:32 AM UTC
closes: Dec 22, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by: Dec 22, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker: KXITALYPM-27DEC22-GMEL

Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 110¢).

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.