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Prime Minister of Italy after the next election·closes in 27mo

Will Giorgia Meloni become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

YES means Giorgia Meloni

24h volume
0
1,509 lifetime
Open interest
649
+644 over 90d
Spread
22¢
5 × 20 at the touch
24h range
–
26 recent trades
Chance of YES
49%

A YES contract costs 47¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
51%

costs 75¢

YES bid / ask
25¢ / 47¢
NO bid / ask
53¢ / 75¢
Recent buying16% YES · 84% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢volAug 11Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask4,69097¢
  • ask20096¢
  • ask20059¢
  • ask15658¢
  • ask1357¢
  • ask1356¢
  • ask4248¢
  • ask2047¢
spread22¢mid 36¢
  • bid525¢
  • bid40024¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Giorgia Meloni becomes Prime Minister of Italy as a result of government formation following the next Italian general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Dec 22, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government). If no government forms by Dec 22, 2028, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 11 · 12:32 AM UTC
closes
Dec 22, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 22, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXITALYPM-27DEC22-GMEL
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 110¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 26 trades, 16% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
8d ago49¢5bought no
8d ago49¢177bought no
1mo ago51¢200bought no
1mo ago59¢24bought yes
1mo ago50¢20bought yes
1mo ago48¢23bought no
1mo ago48¢7bought no
1mo ago48¢18bought no
1mo ago49¢197bought yes
1mo ago47¢1bought no
1mo ago48¢200bought no
1mo ago48¢182bought no
1mo ago48¢182bought no
1mo ago48¢18bought no
1mo ago47¢200bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.