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Kamala Harris announces presidential run by...?·closes in 6mo

Will Kamala Harris announce a run for President of the United States before Apr 1, 2027?

YES means Before Apr 1, 2027

24h volume
1
11.8k lifetime
Open interest
6,936
+1,039 over 30d
Spread
1¢
14 × 500 at the touch
24h range
51¢ – 51¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
51%

A YES contract costs 52¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
49%

costs 49¢

YES bid / ask
51¢ / 52¢
NO bid / ask
48¢ / 49¢
24h low 51¢24h high 51¢
Recent buying99% YES · 1% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
40¢50¢60¢70¢80¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask90983¢
  • ask55082¢
  • ask1,12681¢
  • ask5.7875¢
  • ask42374¢
  • ask11873¢
  • ask11155¢
  • ask50052¢
spread1¢mid 52¢
  • bid1451¢
  • bid10050¢
  • bid16746¢
  • bid2,72145¢
  • bid40044¢
  • bid14933¢
  • bid2,46017¢
  • bid55016¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Kamala Harris has announced that she will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Apr 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.

The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 27 · 5:00 PM UTC
closes
Apr 1, 2027 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXKAMALARUN-28-27APR01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 99% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
10h ago51¢1bought no
6d ago51¢500bought yes
6d ago46¢500bought yes
21d ago51¢0.94bought yes
22d ago51¢38bought yes
1mo ago50¢4bought no
1mo ago49¢1.06bought no
1mo ago58¢0.99bought no
2mo ago58¢40bought yes
2mo ago54¢17bought yes
2mo ago56¢5.22bought yes
2mo ago56¢2.18bought yes
2mo ago56¢47bought yes
2mo ago54¢19bought yes
2mo ago54¢2.5bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.