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Kamala Harris announces presidential run by...?·closes in 9mo

Will Kamala Harris announce a run for President of the United States before Jul 1, 2027?

YES means Before Jul 1, 2027

24h volume
1
19.3k lifetime
Open interest
9,393
+9,382 over 90d
Spread
5¢
129 × 49 at the touch
24h range
65¢ – 65¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
65%+2

A YES contract costs 65¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
35%

costs 40¢

YES bid / ask
60¢ / 65¢
NO bid / ask
35¢ / 40¢
24h low 65¢24h high 65¢
Recent buying43% YES · 57% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
50¢60¢70¢80¢volJul 28Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask7185¢
  • ask11684¢
  • ask6883¢
  • ask3581¢
  • ask8370¢
  • ask8069¢
  • ask50066¢
  • ask4965¢
spread5¢mid 63¢
  • bid12960¢
  • bid50059¢
  • bid15230¢
  • bid1,05829¢
  • bid1,00027¢
  • bid2810¢
  • bid5504¢
  • bid5,8603¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Kamala Harris has announced that she will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Jul 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.

The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 27 · 5:00 PM UTC
closes
Jul 1, 2027 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXKAMALARUN-28-27JUL01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 43% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
13h ago65¢1bought no
4d ago63¢104bought no
4d ago64¢11bought no
4d ago64¢15bought no
4d ago63¢15bought yes
4d ago64¢211bought yes
4d ago65¢500bought yes
4d ago58¢229bought no
4d ago55¢222bought no
4d ago33¢9.13bought no
4d ago66¢12bought no
4d ago65¢500bought no
4d ago66¢5bought no
4d ago66¢2.71bought no
4d ago68¢298bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.