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Wiliam Lai out as President of Taiwan·closes in 3mo

Will Lai Ching-te leave office before 2027-01-01T15:00:00.000Z?

YES means Before January 1, 2027

24h volume
0
2,675 lifetime
Open interest
1,582
Spread
8¢
500 × 200 at the touch
24h range
–
6 recent trades
Chance of YES
11%

A YES contract costs 9¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
89%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
1¢ / 9¢
NO bid / ask
91¢ / 99¢
Recent buying68% YES · 32% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,000100¢
  • ask63085¢
  • ask31683¢
  • ask32958¢
  • ask10757¢
  • ask36356¢
  • ask2009¢
spread8¢mid 5¢
  • bid5001¢
  • bid3160¢
  • bid1,0000¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Lai Ching-te leaves office before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

An announcement that Lai Ching-te will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. If Lai Ching-te leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death). If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 7 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXLAIOUT-LCHI-27JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 6 trades, 68% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
20d ago11¢10bought yes
20d ago8¢250bought yes
20d ago6¢500bought no
20d ago8¢500bought yes
1mo ago8¢291bought yes
1mo ago8¢10bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.