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Humanity's Last Exam·closes in 3mo

Will any LLM score at least 50% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?

YES means At least 50%

24h volume
0
3,137 lifetime
Open interest
2,653
Spread
3¢
550 × 0 at the touch
24h range
–
14 recent trades
Chance of YES
99%

A YES contract costs 100¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
1%

costs 3¢

YES bid / ask
97¢ / 100¢
NO bid / ask
0¢ / 3¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
    spread–mid –
    • bid55097¢
    • bid50096¢
    • bid1,00065¢
    • bid1,31963¢
    • bid5060¢
    • bid522¢
    • bid841¢
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If any language model achieves an accuracy of at least 50% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    May 20 · 2:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Dec 31 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Dec 31 · 3:00 PM UTC
    floor
    50
    ticker
    KXLASTEXAM-26DEC31-T50
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Outcomes in this event settle independently.

    Recent trades

    Over the last 14 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    2mo ago93¢32bought yes
    2mo ago99¢50bought yes
    2mo ago99¢1,000bought yes
    2mo ago98¢28bought yes
    2mo ago94¢2bought yes
    2mo ago98¢7bought yes
    2mo ago94¢498bought yes
    2mo ago94¢2bought yes
    2mo ago91¢1bought yes
    2mo ago98¢47bought yes
    2mo ago90¢166bought yes
    2mo ago90¢334bought yes
    2mo ago98¢252bought yes
    2mo ago97¢200bought yes

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.