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Humanity's Last Exam·closes in 3mo

Will any LLM score at least 55% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?

YES means At least 55%

24h volume
0
5,680 lifetime
Open interest
5,584
Spread
6¢
5 × 3 at the touch
24h range
–
24 recent trades
Chance of YES
90%

A YES contract costs 93¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
10%

costs 13¢

YES bid / ask
87¢ / 93¢
NO bid / ask
7¢ / 13¢
Recent buying54% YES · 46% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5,04099¢
  • ask59198¢
  • ask2897¢
  • ask196¢
  • ask50194¢
  • ask393¢
spread6¢mid 90¢
  • bid587¢
  • bid50086¢
  • bid4366¢
  • bid18965¢
  • bid7.7362¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If any language model achieves an accuracy of at least 55% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
May 20 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
55
ticker
KXLASTEXAM-26DEC31-T55
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 24 trades, 54% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6d ago90¢500bought yes
6d ago89¢1bought yes
8d ago92¢450bought no
8d ago91¢50bought no
18d ago92¢6bought no
1mo ago90¢5bought no
1mo ago92¢15bought no
1mo ago92¢5bought no
1mo ago92¢5bought yes
2mo ago91¢2,000bought no
2mo ago91¢0.2bought no
2mo ago95¢4.7bought no
2mo ago93¢500bought yes
2mo ago92¢0.1bought no
2mo ago89¢0.1bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.