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Humanity's Last Exam·closes in 3mo

Will any LLM score at least 65% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?

YES means At least 65%

24h volume
0
6,957 lifetime
Open interest
2,686
+0 over 7d
Spread
6¢
5 × 72 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
51%

A YES contract costs 35¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
49%

costs 71¢

YES bid / ask
29¢ / 35¢
NO bid / ask
65¢ / 71¢
Recent buying64% YES · 36% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask4965¢
  • ask80055¢
  • ask80053¢
  • ask2552¢
  • ask15038¢
  • ask9137¢
  • ask50036¢
  • ask7235¢
spread6¢mid 32¢
  • bid529¢
  • bid50028¢
  • bid4027¢
  • bid15019¢
  • bid4915¢
  • bid53712¢
  • bid3311¢
  • bid2,0008¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If any language model achieves an accuracy of at least 65% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
May 20 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
65
ticker
KXLASTEXAM-26DEC31-T65
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 64% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7d ago51¢2.87bought yes
7d ago54¢2.88bought yes
7d ago40¢8.94bought yes
7d ago39¢40bought yes
12d ago64¢5bought yes
12d ago65¢20bought yes
12d ago72¢100bought yes
12d ago75¢13bought yes
14d ago38¢5bought no
14d ago36¢86bought no
14d ago34¢6.67bought no
14d ago35¢17bought no
14d ago36¢14bought no
14d ago37¢0.54bought no
14d ago38¢77bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.