Mamdani out as NYC Mayor·closes in 28mo

Will Zohran Mamdani announce their departure as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2029?

YES means Before Jan 1, 2029

24h volume
0
818 lifetime
Open interest
249
−9 over 7d
Spread
5 × 100 at the touch
24h range
16 recent trades
Chance of YES
16%

A YES contract costs 17¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
84%

costs 88¢

YES bid / ask
12¢ / 17¢
NO bid / ask
83¢ / 88¢
Recent buying56% YES · 44% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

25¢50¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,29186¢
  • ask20085¢
  • ask31567¢
  • ask71555¢
  • ask64654¢
  • ask30019¢
  • ask10018¢
  • ask10017¢
spreadmid 15¢
  • bid512¢
  • bid40011¢
  • bid153
  • bid200
  • bid955
  • bid50
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Zohran Mamdani leaves as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. An acknowledgment that they will leave office due solely to the scheduled expiration of a constitutionally or legally mandated term limit does not satisfy the Payout Criterion. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.

opened
Aug 11 · 1:00 AM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2029 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXMAMDANIOUT-26AUG-29JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 16 trades, 56% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7d ago16¢9bought yes
15d ago18¢95bought yes
15d ago19¢9.76bought yes
15d ago18¢5.22bought yes
1mo ago18¢100bought no
1mo ago18¢88bought no
1mo ago18¢25bought no
1mo ago19¢38bought yes
1mo ago19¢9.96bought yes
1mo ago17¢75bought no
1mo ago18¢75bought no
1mo ago16¢200bought yes
1mo ago16¢38bought yes
1mo ago16¢0.01bought yes
1mo ago15¢50bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.