Will Zohran Mamdani announce their departure as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2029?
YES means Before Jan 1, 2029
- 24h volume
- 0
- 818 lifetime
- Open interest
- 249
- +249 over 90d
- Spread
- 5¢
- 5 × 100 at the touch
- 24h range
- –
- 16 recent trades
A YES contract costs 17¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 88¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
- ask1,18160¢
- ask5.2254¢
- ask36748¢
- ask14247¢
- ask36646¢
- ask30019¢
- ask10018¢
- ask10017¢
- bid512¢
- bid40011¢
- bid1534¢
- bid2003¢
- bid9602¢
- bid501¢
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If Zohran Mamdani leaves as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. An acknowledgment that they will leave office due solely to the scheduled expiration of a constitutionally or legally mandated term limit does not satisfy the Payout Criterion. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
- opened
- Aug 11 · 1:00 AM UTC
- closes
- Jan 1, 2029 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Jan 8, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
- ticker
- KXMAMDANIOUT-26AUG-29JAN01
Other outcomes in this event
Outcomes in this event settle independently.
Recent trades
Over the last 16 trades, 56% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7d ago | 16¢ | 9 | bought yes |
| 15d ago | 18¢ | 95 | bought yes |
| 15d ago | 19¢ | 9.76 | bought yes |
| 15d ago | 18¢ | 5.22 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 18¢ | 100 | bought no |
| 1mo ago | 18¢ | 88 | bought no |
| 1mo ago | 18¢ | 25 | bought no |
| 1mo ago | 19¢ | 38 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 19¢ | 9.96 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 17¢ | 75 | bought no |
| 1mo ago | 18¢ | 75 | bought no |
| 1mo ago | 16¢ | 200 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 16¢ | 38 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 16¢ | 0.01 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 15¢ | 50 | bought yes |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.