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Mars CA rail·closes in 283mo

Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?

YES means Before 2050

24h volume
0
16.2k lifetime
Open interest
6,433
+0 over 24h
Spread
4¢
5 × 286 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
34%

A YES contract costs 34¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
66%

costs 70¢

YES bid / ask
30¢ / 34¢
NO bid / ask
66¢ / 70¢
Recent buying27% YES · 73% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢30¢35¢40¢volSep 20, 4:18 AMSep 20, 11:15 PM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask4796¢
  • ask5.4687¢
  • ask1,48680¢
  • ask55079¢
  • ask150¢
  • ask2.8140¢
  • ask50036¢
  • ask28634¢
spread4¢mid 32¢
  • bid530¢
  • bid2029¢
  • bid50028¢
  • bid24226¢
  • bid1025¢
  • bid27824¢
  • bid73823¢
  • bid2718¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a human lands on Mars before California starts its high speed rail service for the public before Jan 1, 2050, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 27, 2025 · 8:45 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2050 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2050 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXMARSVRAIL-50
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 27% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago34¢14bought yes
2d ago33¢3bought yes
2d ago33¢5bought yes
3d ago27¢1bought no
3d ago33¢1bought yes
3d ago27¢1bought no
3d ago33¢1bought yes
3d ago27¢1bought no
3d ago33¢1bought yes
3d ago28¢1bought no
3d ago33¢1bought yes
3d ago28¢1bought no
3d ago33¢1bought yes
3d ago28¢1bought no
3d ago33¢1bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.