Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?
YES means Before 2050
- 24h volume
- 133
- 17.1k lifetime
- Open interest
- 6,225
- Spread
- 5¢
- 15 × 16 at the touch
- 24h range
- –
- 50 recent trades
A YES contract costs 32¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 73¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
Order book unavailable.
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If a human lands on Mars before California starts its high speed rail service for the public before Jan 1, 2050, then the market resolves to Yes.
- ABC
- Axios
- Bloomberg News
- Blue Origin
- CBS
- CNN
- ESA
- Fox News
- MSNBC
- NASA
- NBC
- Politico
- Reuters
- Roscosmos
- Space
- SpaceX
- the Associated Press
- the California Department of Transportation
- the California High-Speed Rail Authority
- the Chinese National Space Administration
- the Federal Railroad Administration
- The New York Times
- The Wall Street Journal
- The Washington Post
- opened
- Jun 27, 2025 · 8:45 PM UTC
- closes
- Jan 1, 2050 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Jan 1, 2050 · 3:00 PM UTC
- ticker
- KXMARSVRAIL-50
This event
Outcomes in this event settle independently.
This is the only market in its event.
Recent trades
Over the last 50 trades, 28% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4h ago | 26¢ | 122 | bought no |
| 4h ago | 27¢ | 1 | bought no |
| 4h ago | 28¢ | 5 | bought no |
| 4h ago | 28¢ | 5 | bought no |
| 10d ago | 31¢ | 5 | bought yes |
| 10d ago | 33¢ | 1.32 | bought yes |
| 10d ago | 32¢ | 1 | bought yes |
| 10d ago | 28¢ | 202 | bought no |
| 10d ago | 29¢ | 5.27 | bought no |
| 10d ago | 29¢ | 1 | bought no |
| 10d ago | 29¢ | 1.05 | bought no |
| 12d ago | 31¢ | 1.41 | bought no |
| 17d ago | 30¢ | 2 | bought no |
| 17d ago | 30¢ | 0.73 | bought no |
| 18d ago | 30¢ | 3 | bought no |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.